Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
